^{Sustainability}
In short supply

Daisy Barnes explores how tea and coffee buyers can build resilience in volatile markets

Words: Daisy Barnes
Image: Finlays’ Archives

The Big Idea:

Volatility in tea and coffee is structural, not temporary, so buyers must plan differently.

Supply resilience comes from forward planning, diversified sourcing, and strong supplier partnerships.

Short-term buying increases risk; long-term investment and explicit strategies protect supply security.

Volatility is structural. Supply securityis engineered. There is a persistent misconception in the coffee and tea markets today: that uncertainty is temporary, and with patience, conditions will stabilize. That is not the case.

The operating environment for tea and coffee has altered structurally, not cyclically. Price volatility, supply pressure and increasing scrutiny at origin are no longer disruptions to manage. Instead, they are the new baseline.

“The market hasn’t lost control,” says Jamie L’Estrange, Commercial Director at Finlay Beverages. “It’s reset. And the question for brands, retailers and operators is no longer ‘when does this settle?’ – it’s ‘how exposed am I if it doesn’t?’”

That reframing matters. In 2026, supply security is no longer about waiting for certainty. It is about designing resilience into the system – deliberately, early, and with the right partner who takes a long-term view.

Diverging markets
Coffee is operating under sustained pressure. Climate volatility in Brazil and Vietnam, constrained inventories, disrupted logistics and geopolitical friction have combined to create a persistently elevated and unstable market.

“This isn’t a short-term dislocation,” L’Estrange says. “The underlying conditions of climate exposure, cost inflation, supply concentration are not resolving. You have to plan on volatility holding.”

Tea presents a different, less visible risk profile. Prices remain relatively stable, and in some origins, unsustainably low.

The operating environment for tea and coffee has altered structurally, not cyclically.”

“That stability is misleading,” he says. “If producers cannot reinvest, the supply base erodes. You don’t see it immediately in price - you see it over time in quality, availability, resilience, and ultimately, continuity of supply.”

The implication is clear: Coffee risk is immediate and visible; tea risk is deferred, but structural.

Where supply breaks
Over the next 12–18 months, risk will continue to concentrate in predictable areas, but with increasing intensity.

For coffee, climate remains the primary variable. Concentration of production in a handful of origins leaves the market highly exposed to weather events. Layer in freight instability and potential trade disruption, and the system remains fragile.

However, the deeper issue is economic. Producers are absorbing higher costs and greater volatility with limited margin resilience.

“Without sustained investment at origin, the system weakens,” L’Estrange says. “That’s not theoretical - it directly affects availability and reliability.”

In tea, the pressure point is different. Chronic under-pricing is constraining investment into labor conditions, community infrastructure and long-term sustainability.

“Sustainability is not a separate agenda,” he says. “If the economics don’t support the production model, supply security degrades. That’s the reality.”

Moving beyond reactive buying
In this environment, short-term procurement strategies are increasingly ineffective.

“Spot buying in a volatile market is exposure - not flexibility,” L’Estrange states. “If you’re not actively managing risk, you’re carrying it, and at some point, it will bite.”

The shift is towards structured purchasing strategies: extending planning horizons, phasing exposure, and selectively fixing price.

Forward contracts are one mechanism. More broadly, the emphasis is on informed decision-making - using market intelligence to model scenarios and define acceptable risk positions.

“We’re not claiming perfect foresight,” he says. “But we provide clarity on what’s driving the market and what credible outcomes look like. That’s what enables disciplined planning.”

If you’re not actively managing risk, you’re carrying it, and at some point, it will bite.”

Engineering supply security
Supply resilience is not a single lever, but the result of coordinated decisions.

At Finlay Beverages, that system is built on three core mechanisms:

1. Forward positioning: Strategic purchasing ahead of demand, based on market analysis and customer requirements.

2. Origin diversification: Access across multiple producing regions, reducing concentration risk and increasing optionality.

3. Deliberate inventory: Holding stock as a buffer against disruption - a conscious trade-off between cost and continuity.

“All three carry cost,” L’Estrange says, “but they also remove risk. In this market, that trade-off
is fundamental.”

Those mechanisms are underpinned by long-term origin relationships - a factor often underestimated in discussions around supply security.

“Trust is earned over time,” he notes. “In constrained markets, supply flows through trusted partnerships. That’s not something you can create overnight.”

The Finlay Beverages Supplier Relationship Management Program fosters long-term, collaborative partnerships with suppliers, strengthening transparency, trust, and performance across the supply chain. This approach enhances risk identification and management while building resilience, ensuring a reliable and sustainable supply of tea and coffee.

WATCH: Jaimie L'Estrange on navigating supply chain volatility

What customers should be doing now
The actions required are practical, but increasingly non-negotiable.

Firstly, extend planning horizons. Short-term buying amplifies exposure to volatility.

Secondly, define a risk strategy. Whether that is price fixing, phased purchasing or structured flexibility, it needs to be explicit.

Thirdly, prioritize supplier capability over transaction cost.

“In stable markets, price optimization dominates,” L’Estrange says. “In volatile markets, execution capability is what protects you.”

For tea buyers, there is an additional requirement: engage commercially with sustainability.

“The industry cannot fund its own transition at current price levels,” he says. “Customers need to be part of that equation – whether through pricing, commitments or supplier partnerships. Otherwise, supply risk increases over time.”

What the market is underestimating
The most important change underway is
structural consolidation.

“We are seeing a divergence between supply chains that are investable - resilient, compliant, transparent - and those that aren’t,” L’Estrange explains. “Over time, supply concentrates into the former.”

That has direct implications for buyers. Access to stable, compliant supply will increasingly depend on early alignment with the right partners.

This is not a short-term cycle. It is a redefinition of how supply works - who has it, who can sustain it, and who can prove it.

“The strongest businesses aren’t waiting for stability,” L’Estrange says. “They are building through volatility - locking in supply, structuring risk, and investing in the relationships that will hold when the market tightens further.”

Because in a market like this, supply security is not something you buy at the point of need. It is something you secure, with the right partner, long before you have to ask the question.

Jamie L’Estrange

The strongest businesses aren’t waiting for stability.”

Daisy Barnes
Marketing Executive Finlay Beverages